Friday, June 6, 2008
End of the line
Yours truly,
Polprint.
Wednesday, June 4, 2008
The O.C. Show
Of course. But two things must be noted. First and most obviously, Clinton's blatant push for the veep slot is sure to anger many Obama fans, who accuse her of employing excessively forward--dare we say ballsy--tactics all along.
Second and more interesting: a friend of Polprint has pointed out that if Obama takes Clinton as VP, it will look like he is not in charge. Worse, it will look like he has been bullied by a strong woman, which is not the impression that a would-be commander in chief wants to project. Thus, according to this analysis, Clinton's naked bid is sure to backfire, because if Obama acquiesces, it puts him in the untenable position of looking weak.
Tuesday, May 27, 2008
The gaffe wars
The Republican National Committee is criticizing Obama for stating that his uncle was among the liberators of Auschwitz, when it was his great-uncle helping liberate
According to CNN, an RNC spokesman says that the comments (which the Obama campaign quickly clarified) "raise questions about his judgment and his readiness to lead as commander in chief."
That’s a bit rich.
Where was the RNC when George Bush confused APEC and OPEC,
Monday, May 26, 2008
The Obama-Paul connection
Ron Paul is generally presented as an irritation to McCain--as is Bob Barr, the newly coronated Libertarian party nominee who is hoping for Ron Paul's support.
But could Ron Paul also pose a threat to--or an opportunity for--Obama? Sure, Obama hasn't sung the praises of the gold standard, or said that the solution to environmental ills is property rights. But fundamentally, supporters of both are young, enthusiastic and anti-war. Some of the Ron Paul contingent's natural allegiances, therefore, might lie with Obama rather than McCain. Much will depend on Paul's plans--whether he endorses Barr, runs as an independent, or simply bows out.
Wednesday, May 21, 2008
Webb....Wow!
In looking for more information about Webb, Polprint turned of course to the most trusted source on the Internet: Wikipedia. The interesting aspect of the entry is Webb's Navy Cross citation while serving in Vietnam. Apparently that is the second to top honor in the navy.
Webb's actions were extraordinary. He led the approach to three different bunkers (as part of the same action, on the same day). At the first bunker, he captured several soldiers who emerged from the bunkers; at the second and third, grenades were pitched at him but he somehow avoided them and searched or destroyed them.
Readers are strongly recommended to read the citation for themselves.
Tuesday, May 20, 2008
A tribute to Ted Kennedy
Kennedy is famous in Polprint's immediate family because, upon attending a 85th birthday party for Polprint's grandfather, he remarked that he was glad to see all the grandchildren and great-grandchildren assembled. The grandchildren, the eldest of whom was not yet through college, promptly stared at each other accusingly. (In fact, the first great-grandchild was born just last week, and what a cutie he is, if his doting Aunt Polprint does say so!)
Kennedy has been a tireless fighter for raising the minimum wage, decent environmental standards and much else. He also opposed the Iraq war from the beginning. We wish him the very best, and keep him in our thoughts and prayers.
****CORRECTION****
Polprint has been informed by family members that it was her grandfather's 90th birthday party at which Ted Kennedy uttered his memorable remarks, not the 85th. Polprint's grandfather had a lot of birthday parties (plainly).
Monday, May 19, 2008
What is Geraldine Ferraro's problem?
Memo to Ms. Ferraro:
If you are going to make an incredibly stupid remark, at least please give it some context.
By your untraceable logic, it must have been "terribly racist" that Jesse Jackson did not get the Democratic nomination in 1984. (He surely would have done better than Mondale/Ferraro, too.)
Obama goes to Gettysburg?
To the latter end, Richard Parker, a professor at Harvard's Kennedy School of Government, suggests that Obama should stake out territory that holds a sacred place in American history. Parker thinks that Obama should make a major speech on the war from Gettysburg, among the
tens of thousands of dead from north and south. The speech could emphasize withdrawal from Iraq; the need for sound diplomacy in its place; American unity; and other key themes.
Polprint is trying to get Parker's memo to the Obama campaign; if she succeeds, readers will be alerted. Interestingly, Parker says that he was initially a Clinton supporter, but was brought around to Obama by the enthusiasm of his students, unheard of since the Kennedy years.
Thursday, May 15, 2008
Question hour for McCain
Wednesday, May 14, 2008
Forgotten Congressional campaigns
Polprint has yet to see a front-page analysis on vulnerable Senate or Congressional seats (not to mention governorships)--how many, what states, and so forth. Case in point: the New York Times story today on how this week's Mississippi special election, won by a Democrat in a conservative district, is a warning shot to Republicans everywhere. But what are the six vulnerable Senate seats that the article mentioned? Readers, are you up on this?
Sunday, May 11, 2008
Can someone please define "landslide"?
Is 56-42 really a landslide? Polprint has vivid memories of her first encounter with political landslide: Ronald Reagan's trouncing of Walter Mondale in 1984. OK, so Reagan won the popular vote 59-41, by just four points more than Obama did in North Carolina. But he swept 49 of 50 states, so "landslide" may be more apt for his electoral-college victory.
Clinton actually seems to be the one gearing up for a landslide: she's ahead 66-23 in West Virginia, according to the latest poll. We'll see how the press describes her victory. (Polprint has a sneaking suspicion that "landslide" is chiefly a term of coronation, and mostly applies when expectations are exceeded.)
Thursday, May 8, 2008
Fashion advice for Obama
Wednesday, May 7, 2008
Clintonian conspiracies
Polprint discounts most conspiracy theories, and this one is no exception. But why not indulge, once in awhile?
Monday, May 5, 2008
The Chelsea factor
Instead, her stump speech is earnest, dull and repetive. When she is not wonking out (to use a verb that is not in Polprint's dusty copy of Webster's), she says things like: "I'm so proud of my mom. I hope that your daughter is as proud of you or your children are as proud of you as I'm proud of my mom."
What 28-year-old still refers to their mother as "my mom", anyway?
Tuesday, April 29, 2008
Gas guzzler politics II
According to the New York Times, Clinton seeks a windfall-profits tax on oil companies to replace the revenue (how will she prevent the vertically integrated companies from passing the charges on to consumers?). Obama opposes the gas-tax reduction as a temporary fix that will take needed funds from the nation's highways.
Europe, where gas prices are astronomical, must be chuckling at this debate. In any case, the squabble shows up the political difficulties ahead for America's climate-change legislation, which would, in theory at least, boost energy costs at a time when people are already hurting.
Monday, April 28, 2008
Better than a debate
Memo to Howard Dean, Nancy Pelosi and all the other Democratic big shots:
Things are getting bad, aren’t they? Your dream duo is disintegrating into bickering over who thinks the American people are bitter, who did or didn’t get shot at by Bosnian snipers, who wears flag-pin lapels, and other urgent matters. Voters are sick of it, and John McCain is getting a free (if little-noticed) ride.
Here is a possible solution, put forward by a friend of Polprint:
Rather than (or in addition to) another debate, he argues, why not have Obama and Clinton appear together to promote the Democratic platform and attack McCain?
That would serve three purposes: stopping the Democratic mud-slinging, at least for a day; showing Democratic party unity—reminding voters, before it is too late, that whoever wins the nomination will have the loser’s full support; and shifting the emphasis to Democrats’ differences with McCain.
Where this idea falters, plainly, is feasibility. Clinton and Obama do not care for each other, to say the least. They would probably rather search out real sniper fire than share a platform. But Mr. Dean and Ms. Pelosi, that is what heavyweights are for—to think creatively, and for the good of the Party. Polprint's friend believes it might just an idea be worth broaching.
Sunday, April 20, 2008
Gas guzzler politics
During the
Saturday, April 19, 2008
Colbert politics
Clinton's was the strangest--she appeared briefly to "fix" a technological glitch that Colbert was having. But then she didn't linger for questions...odd. Edwards, with his "haircare" (not healthcare) obsession, was hilarious, and Obama bantered acceptably.
But the truly bizarre spots were the commercials. Nancy Pelosi and Newt Gingrich appeared together, and Al Sharpton and Pat Robertson shared a couch. The sponsoring organization was the "Alliance for Climate Protection." Rather effective images, though they might need a sharper message than the fuzzy "save our planet now".
Thursday, April 10, 2008
The road well-traveled
Alaska is more problematic. Polprint attempted to go there last summer, but was turned away when she was unable to produce a passport. She eventually made it; apparently if your plane stops in Canada, passports are necessary.
Alaska was the bane of Richard Nixon, too. When contesting Kennedy in 1960, Nixon vowed to campaign in all 50 states. A few days before the general election, he was forced to fly to Alaska--wasting valuable hours, of course--to remain a man of his word. This is recounted in Theodore White's The Making of the President 1960.
Current candidates seem unlikely to make similar promises. That said, being able to claim that one had campaigned in all 50 states would provide a certain cache.
Sunday, April 6, 2008
Penn-itence
One of the great mysteries is not simply why Penn decided to take the meeting last week, but why Colombia hired Penn's firm last year in the first place. Surely Colombia was cognizant of Clinton's position, and Penn's relationship with her. Very strange.
Saturday, April 5, 2008
Bring back Mike Huckabee!
Friday, March 28, 2008
About that sniper fire
Some perspective on this flap is in order. Polprint has just finished Means of Ascent, the second volume in Robert Caro's masterful biography of Lyndon Johnson. In the early 1940s LBJ had pledged to Texas voters that if war ever came, he would join their boys on the front lines. So after Pearl Harbor, Johnson hemmed and hawed and finally headed to the Pacific as a "Naval Observer". He tagged along on a single air-bombing raid, during which his plane came under fire from Japanese Zeroes. The flight landed safely. LBJ headed home, having fulfilled the letter if not the spirit of his political pledge, and was awarded a Silver Star by General McArthur.
Not long afterwards, Johnson's wartime service suddenly became magnified. He had not simply tagged along on one flight as an observer; rather, he had "lived with the men on fighting fronts. I flew with them on missions over enemy territory." Once, he claimed to have seen 14 Japanese Zeroes "go down in flames right in front of me." He flourished the silver star to prove his valor. And the press bought it. During the 1948 Senate race in Texas, which Johnson won through hook and crook, one paper cited Johnson's descriptions of how "he was flying in B-29s, helping bomb one Japanese island after another into submission". The Austin-American Statesman wrote of Johnson's "gallantry in combat action".
Johnson would never have survived a day in the Internet era (for this reason and many others). Nonetheless, against such magnifications, Hillary Clinton's exaggerations look tame.
Clinton and pledged delegates
Polprint is back, rested and refreshed after her visit to the
Tuesday, March 18, 2008
Breaking for Bloggers
Monday, March 17, 2008
Hanging Delegates
Will all this lead to a Who Lost Florida fight on November 5th? Possibly. Any move the Democrats make risks angering large swathes of Florida voters. But they may be lagging in the state already. John McCain appeals nicely to the elder constituency, and he could choose Florida's governor, Charlie Crist, as a running-mate. But Crist may first have to sort out Florida's economy, which has been hammered by the real-estate bust.
Sunday, March 16, 2008
More fun with Spitzer
Friday, March 14, 2008
Florigan, continued
Obama, according to the LA Times, does not want a revote, especially in Florida. (This position is sensible because Florida is full of old people and Cubans, who doubtless prefer Hillary; on the other hand there is no better way to alienate Florida voters.) Moreover, a mail-only ballot, done in a rush, will spur accusations of fraud. Michigan, for some reason, is closer to a revote agreement.
Thursday, March 13, 2008
Spitzer and Clinton
1) A new consolation prize for Clinton: governor of New York. As David Broder of the Washington Post notes, David Paterson can be challenged in 2010. (The next Illinois governorship race will also take place in 2010.) Polprint still thinks that the Senate Majority Leader slot would be better-suited to Clinton.
2) A reminder of Bill Clinton's less savory doings. Bill has been shoved into the background in recent months; the Spitzer scandal, with clutch assistance from Hillary's 3am phone call ad, has set the pundits chattering again. On the other hand, Silda Wall Spitzer's plight could animate the sympathy-for-Hillary voters.
3) The superdelegate tally in New York. Clinton has lost one of her staunchest supporters in Spitzer. But according to this CBS News blog, Paterson has endorsed her too. Paterson already held a superdelegate slot as lieutenant governor, so his vote could go to someone else. (Still, the New York delegation will surely stick together and back their Senator.)
Anything I'm missing?
Spitzer's future
Wednesday, March 12, 2008
The "Dream Ticket" debate
The Clintons want: a) the public to downgrade its perception of Obama from presidential to running-mate material; and, if that doesn't work, b) to pressure the superdelegates to try to force the dream ticket together. (Nancy Pelosi isn't buying.) As Polprint has previously argued, the dream ticket can only go one way: Clinton on top, Obama on bottom. (The Huffington Post makes the case for Obama-Clinton, in which Clinton takes on a Dick Cheney attack-dog role and covers Obama's back.)
Obama has shot down suggestions of a dream ticket. But if things come down to the wire, and Clinton becomes the nominee, Polprint increasingly believes she will have to pick him and that he would most likely say yes. Why?
On the first: if she does not choose him, she will be jeopardizing the future of the Democratic party. People under 40 overwhelmingly favor Obama. Many of these are college students, who are so besotted--not to mention angry at Clinton--that they will not boycott the polls if Obama is not on the ticket. Clinton risks turning off an entire generation of voters.
On the second: Obama is nothing if not ambitious. And one of the chief reasons he has climbed so high so quickly is that he has minimal political baggage. Ironic but true: the lack of a voting record comes in handy when running for president. Eight more years as Senator would not merely "boil the hope out of him", but would also give him a track record that he would have to answer for. Being vice-president would give him policy-making experience supplemented by only the occasional, tie-breaking vote in the Senate. (On the other hand, Obama might detest Clinton too much by this point, and there's always the possibility that Michelle Obama will say no.)
By the way, the Economist's "Democracy in America" blog includes a very funny cartoon, originally from the Oregonian, about Clinton's running-mate overtures.
Good riddance, Governor
Anyhow, Polprint should be more worried about the fate of New York state. She looks forward to learning about David Paterson in the coming days.
Tuesday, March 11, 2008
The Ballad of Eliot Spitzer
Who knew that he shouln't have kissed her
But he booked a suite
It was quite a treat
And now he's the talk of Wolf Blitzer.
Monday, March 10, 2008
Spitzer, nailed
Saturday, March 8, 2008
The Case Against Caucuses
It is one thing for a small, homogenous and experienced state like
a) They are confusing--witness
b) They are exclusionary. Most ordinary people do not have two (at least!) spare hours to wait out a messy meeting. Emergency workers, overseas soldiers, and countless others are banished at a stroke.
Thursday, March 6, 2008
The Florigan question
Republicans for Clinton?
Both were open primaries, meaning that Republicans can vote in either party's contest (not both). Open primaries have generally been considered helpful to Obama, who draws independents and Republicans. But even a small counter-trend in Texas--a heavily Republican state--could have made a difference.
Rush Limbaugh has spent the past week urging listeners to cast a cross-over vote for Clinton. And the CNN.com exit poll results show some interesting numbers. Republicans in Texas--who accounted for 9% of the vote--went for Obama 53-46. That is a low figure comparated to other states (72% of Republicans went for Obama in Virginia's open primary, for example). The Texas exit poll also says that self-identified conservatives favored Clinton 52-45 (though the term "conservative" would include conservative Democrats; the other possible categories for that question were "liberal" and "moderate").
In Ohio, the exit poll shows Clinton and Obama splitting the Republican vote, and independents only narrowly breaking for Obama, 50-48.
Perhaps it is not such bad news after all for Obama that Pennsylvania is a closed primary.
Wednesday, March 5, 2008
The Morning After
Pity the superdelegates. For the last three weeks they have trickled over to the Obama bandwagon. Now,
One more note: Clinton told CBS this morning that the dream ticket "may be where this is headed". Polprint has argued before that while Clinton-Obama is viable and even desirable for the Democrats, Obama-Clinton is not. If Obama gets the nomination, how about a third solution: boot out Harry Reid and give the Senate Majority Leader post to Clinton? A consolation prize to be sure, but she has studied hard at the knee of Robert Byrd. It might just suit her organizational, battle-ax skills.
Finally (promise), can the New York Times count? Today's NYT editorial rightly calls for the rest of the primary to take a more elevated tone. Then it states that "nearly a third of the 50 states have yet to hold nominating contests". Actually, that number is 10--which, according to Polprint's advanced mathematical calculations, equates to one-fifth. (See NYT calendar.) The Times was presumably including Puerto Rico and Guam, which also are yet to come (albeit this still doesn't get us to one-third).
Onward to Pennsylvania
Texas is still rolling in--counting is apparently not the strong suit of several cities--but the results there look fairly even (in the primary at least). Clinton has won Ohio and Rhode Island; Obama is saving face with Vermont. (Oh yes, and Huckabee has finally given up.)
More analysis to come after a good night's sleep. The bottom line is that the Democratic race will rage onward, perhaps until the last caucus-goer has been counted in Puerto Rico on June 7 (or beyond). Since Clinton has won at least one important victory (Ohio) by a comfortable margin, it will be tough for party bosses to pressure her to withdraw from the race at this point. Nobody wants to irritate Ohioans, who could very well decide the outcome in November.
Next up: Wyoming's caucus on March 8, followed by primaries in Mississippi (March 11) and Pennsylvania (April 22) . See Wikipedia's primary calendar.
Monday, March 3, 2008
Obama's rhetoric
Clive Crook and Gideon Rachman, two former Economist writers who decamped to the Financial Times, have engaged in a spirited debate across the blogosphere.
Rachman says that Obama's style resembles "a man doing an impression of what he thinks a great speech might be like". Crook counters that "Surely the simplest test of a speaker is the effect he has on his audience". In other words hundreds of thousands of people, including Crook, cannot be wrong.
Crook does admit that Obama's tour de forces are not prone to detail. But he insists that this is not the point, since "the best political speeches are almost always vacuous". Rachman ends on a generous note. Having observed Obama's substantive performances in the debates, he writes, "Just because Mr Obama gives lousy, empty speeches, it does not mean that he will be a lousy, empty president."
Sunday, March 2, 2008
Sweating in India
This is the fundamental conundrum facing climate change policymakers around the world. The developing world cannot be denied its right to higher living standards. But neither can the atmosphere easily absorb the consequences. In India, as in China, coal is the easy, cheap--and dirty--way to meet demand. How to incentivize alternatives?
=====================================
Oops, correction to the aboved (a mistake in the original NYT article that was subsequently corrected): it's 700 million, not 700,000. What a staggering figure!
Shivering in Boston
Today's New York Times assesses the wintery spell. The entire world has caught cold. There was even snow in
Is global warming therefore a hoax, as Sen Jim Inhofe from
In any case, the cold spell now gives George Bush an excuse, if he ever needed one, to run out the clock on climate change. Should he set foot in
Saturday, March 1, 2008
Political crushes
In the student-journalism piece that Polprint cited yesterday, the author states that many of his students have "political crushes" on Obama. An acquaintance in Texas recently confessed to Polprint, "I have the hugest political crush on Obama. I've never had one of those before!" Poor John McCain may be rather behind in this department. However, the good news for him is that crushes are, generally speaking, ephemeral.
Friday, February 29, 2008
It's the organization, stupid
Thanks are therefore in order to a reader in Seattle, WA, who sent in this fascinating piece on the contrast between the responses of the Clinton and Obama camps to student journalists. The Obama camp returned phone calls, doled out press passes, answered the students' questions; the Clinton camp brushed them off. (Polprint would also like a story on the inner mechanics of the Clinton campaign, explaining why and how she has been disorganized. Presumably a post-mortem, stuffed with quotes from finger-pointing staffers, will take care of this.)
One more note on organization: today's Wall Street Journal has a great piece about how Obama's Texas organization differs from that in other states. He is relying far more than usual on volunteers, as opposed to his usual savvy cadre of paid staffers. The latter arrived only a few weeks ago, since no one thought the battle would still be raging in March. Obama's Texas campaign chief is wonderfully quoted as saying that the operation is "more like a baling wire and duct tape thing".
The politics of loans
“Where did that come from?” [the voter] asked. “A lot of people in this area who thought she was for the working middle class, and the poor are wondering about that. That’s a lot of money. That really hurt her in this area.”
Polprint will not comment on whether that voter should be more up on Bill Clinton's speaking fees, both Clintons' book advances and anything else that may be buried in her unreleased tax returns. It doesn't matter. If there is actually a perception that Clinton, by virtue of her personal wealth as displayed in the loan, is out of touch with ordinary voters, then that is an interesting and under-explored angle in the race. Meanwhile, Michelle Obama is going around the country saying, "Can you imagine a president of the United States that has just paid off his student loans?" (The Obamas say they paid them off just over three years ago.)Speaking of loans, Polprint is trying to muddle through the controversy about the $4 million line of credit to the McCain campaign. The question is whether he promised public money as collateral. Democrats assert that he did (and have filed a complaint with the Federal Election Commission to that effect); McCain says that he did not--rather, that his list of donors and his abilities to get at their pocketbooks served as collateral. If he did promise public money, then he may be required by law to stick to a public spending limit of $54 million until September. That would be a problem because McCain's campaign has already gone through $49 million. This Washington Post article does as good a job as any of explaining the mess.
Thursday, February 28, 2008
Big-money politics
More on Buckley
Wednesday, February 27, 2008
A tribute to Bill Buckley
Polprint would like to pay tribute to William F Buckley Jr, who passed away yesterday. She has met him in passing on a few occasions; he was always full of wisecracks and wisdom. Several years ago--probably 2004 or 5—he confessed that invading
Tuesday, February 26, 2008
The debates are over
The moderators erred on two counts. First, showing the wrong video clip was inexcusable. They undoubtedly meant to show the clip later in the program, but the result of the mix-up was that Obama was asked a
The other and more serious problem was the final question. The candidates had already given what they believed to be closing statements; then one of the moderators (Brian Williams, if memory serves) asked each to pose a final question to each other. Clearly this was to supposed to bring about a forward-looking, open-ended conclusion to the debate; instead it looked churlish. Sensibly both Obama and Clinton ignored the intended provocation.
Overall, this was clearly an elbows-out debate, but both candidates seemed to handle the change in tone quite capably. One surprise at the end: Clinton appeared to say she would retract her war-authorization vote, in uncharacteristically clear language.
McCain and the Swift Boaters
McCain, when he heard about the comments, immediately denounced them, saying, "I will certainly make sure that nothing like that happens again." Obama’s camp approvingly followed up. It was all (sorry, Hillary) rather gentlemanly.
Polprint is not surprised by McCain’s quick response, since he has ample integrity. He denounced the 2004 Swift Boat Veterans for Truth attacks on John Kerry, a fellow veteran, as "dishonest and dishonorable". He has also suffered from similar scurrilousness, particularly during the
But today’s episode serves as a reminder that "What will the Swift Boaters do next?" is one of the great questions of the campaign. Polprint wonders specifically:
1) How strongly will Swift Boat types--murky lot that they are--support McCain? He is not exactly the conservatives’ candidate of choice; and the attacks of 2004 seemed to come from "ends justify the means" die-hards.
2) Will McCain be able to control the Swift Boaters? George Bush made only a half-hearted effort to steer them off of Kerry in 2004. McCain will be different, Polprint believes; but will it matter? By law, the 527s operate fully outside of the campaign. McCain can call on them to stop; but there is no guarantee that they will pay heed.
Monday, February 25, 2008
After March 4
There are still 10 states to go. Namely: Wyoming (caucus), Mississippi, Pennsylvania, Indiana, North Carolina, West Virginia, Kentucky, Oregon, Montana and South Dakota. Plus Guam and Puerto Rico.
Four of these states (PA, IN, KY and WV) border Ohio. Polprint would wager that if Clinton wins Ohio--where she is currently ahead--by enough to stay in the race and stem Obama's momentum, she will spend much of the next two months holed up in that cluster.
Silly season
More substantively, Polprint can recommend this Texas Monthly interview with Mark McKinnon, an old Bush hand who is now a top McCain advisor. He talks about how a campaign that appeared to be kaput was able to turn things around (the secret weapon: Huckabee toppling Romney in Iowa). Clearly the interview was a month or two ago, since McKinnon thinks that Hillary Clinton will be the Democratic nominee. But he reaffirms his intriguing vow to withdraw from the McCain campaign if Obama wins the Democratic nomination. He apparently likes Obama too much to craft attack ads against him.
Sunday, February 24, 2008
Enter Nader
Saturday, February 23, 2008
Lone Star Wind
Today’s New York Times has a nice front-page story on the wind-energy boom in
Friday, February 22, 2008
Tangled Webb
Polprint has long (well, for a month) been bullish on Jim Webb’s prospects as a VP for Obama. He embodies both change and experience (especially foreign policy, which Obama badly needs). Today the Fix has belatedly added Webb to its veepstakes.
However,
This hypothetical issue gets especially tricky since one of the best candidates for an open Webb Senate seat could be the governor himself. And he--Tim Kaine-- has two more years until he is term limited out. Complicating things further, Kaine is also considered possible VP material for Obama; indeed he endorsed Obama very early—a year ago--and so would probably be vexed if Obama went for Webb.
Polprint is glad not to have to solve such puzzles.
Post-game analysis
Obama rambled in a few spots but overall held the line, which was his goal. Did anyone else notice that pages from his notepad kept flapping up in a distracting manner? Presumably a burst of air was trained on him, which may have been especially irksome since he is just recovering from flu.
One surprise: no mention of climate change or even energy policy (according to a scroll of the debate transcript). Perhaps the candidates and moderators got too hung up on health-care. Polprint also wonders how worried corporate America is by Obama's opposition to NAFTA and other free-trade deals in the absence of acceptable environmental and labor standards.
Thursday, February 21, 2008
Kosovo continued
Obama's Infrastructure Bank
Polprint has been intrigued by the concept of a National Infrastructure Bank, ever since Obama announced support for the concept at a speech in
It turns out that the idea is not new. Last year, even before the I-35 bridge in
States can and do, of course, borrow at low interest rates to fund roads and sewage pipes. But their revenue intake can change quite a bit from year to year. A bank would shield them from these economic fluctuations, and also help ward off the politicization of state and local bond issues. A dedicated bank would also boost the importance of infrastructure in the public mind.
Wednesday, February 20, 2008
World events etc
Well, yes.
In her defense, Polprint knows little about Pakistan or Cuba. But she did visit Kosovo in 1997, before NATO bombed Milosevic's forces. She wrote about the divided education system there, and met a wonderful Albanian family that survived the subsequent upheaval.
Two points, briefly:
First, Kosovo's independence seems assured, even though some countries like Russia (and Serbia) may not recognize it for a long time. Once independence is declared in such cases, there is no going back unless armed conflict erupts. (That's what happened in the American civil war, of course--the only way to get the South back was to invade.) With America and Europe keeping close watch, there is no chance of Serbian aggression. Parenthetically, it has always struck Polprint as odd that the Serbs cling so passionately to Kosovo, when it was the site of a major defeat in 1389, not a victory.
Second, what about Kosovo's economy? Montenegro, the previous state to break away from Serbia, at least has lovely beaches and will one day have a booming resort economy like Croatia. Kosovo is landlocked and drab. When Polprint was there 10 years ago, the UN and international aid workers seemed to form the economic pillars. Perhaps Kosovo will one day become a high-tech hub of Europe, but there is lots of work to be done before that happens.
Tuesday, February 19, 2008
Wisconsin and Change
On the evenings of Super Tuesday, Iowa, Virginia and even New Hampshire (where a concession speech was a poorly disguised victory speech), Obama stuck to his lines about red states and blue states coming together, hope-mongering and the rest. This evening in Houston, he added wonkishness. Texans and cable viewers heard all about health care, gas prices, immigration, Bush tax cuts, Iraq, teachers' pay, and several other issues. The trouble was that they heard about hope and change and unity too, which made for a very long speech (45 minutes by Polprint's count). No wonder Obama decided to start, rather uncharitably, midway through Clinton's speech.
Clearly Obama has listened to the critics--that he needs to pad his rhetoric with substance. Polprint thought that his best lines (presumably not plagiarized) were about the future: the Democrats as the "party of tomorrow", with "new leadership for a new century". That sounds like a plausible theme for a general election against John McCain.
Monday, February 18, 2008
Fuzzy Math
The concept of super-delegates is confusing enough--and that was before anyone suggested that they can be cut in half. Today’s New York Times has the latest count:
Obama - 142.5
Undecided - 207.5
Did not answer - 255.5
Polprint was under the impression that it was one super-delegate, one vote. Evidently that is far too simplistic.
As for regular delegates, the Washington Post has an interesting piece about the
By the way...the only thing crazier than super-delegates is American Airlines. Polprint has suffered cancellations, delays and sudden gate changes on a perfectly sunny day in her efforts to get home. Which is why she has all this leisure time to pontificate.
Sunday, February 17, 2008
Of Mike and Miracles
Grumpiness leads to uncharitableness, and today's target is the affable Mike Huckabee. Why is the governor staying in the race, when he needs to gain more than 100 percent of remaining delegates to beat McCain? Today's Los Angeles Times is the latest to speculate on the reasons.
Huckabee insists that miracles can happen, and surely he's right. But what sort of miracle is he contemplating? Polprint's theory: Huckabee thinks the 71-year-old McCain could encounter health problems between now and the convention in August. Huckabee can lose 110 pounds and reduce his risks; McCain cannot shed his age.
Speaking of McCain, why has no major paper yet run a profile of Cindy McCain, the doll-like apparition constantly hovering by her husband's shoulder? Michelle Obama got a big piece in the Times; Bill Clinton cannot stay out of the news; and even Chelsea Clinton is starting to get hassled. It would seem to be Cindy's turn.
Saturday, February 16, 2008
Texas Undecideds
Polls are flip-flopping. The latest gives Obama a lead; previous ones gave the edge to Hillary. Of course, polls have been unreliable, to say the least, during this primary season. Obama will be aided by the fact that registered voters can cast their ballot in any primary (thus independents and even Republicans can vote in the Democratic primary, and Democrats and independents can vote in the Republican one.) There is also the baffling fact that Texas is holding both a primary and a caucus on the same day! This seems like democracy in excess.
Meanwhile, the uproar over the lack of public seating at the Democratic debate in Austin next week continues. Turns out early reports were wrong; the debate is not closed to the public. Not quite. One hundred lucky, unconnected Texans will get a seat. John Kelso, humor columnist for the Austin-American Statesman, captures the mood: "Give me your tired, your poor. Just don't give me too darned many of them."
Obama and the evangelicals
Can McCain capture the evangelical vote, or will they all stay home in November? Polprint would like to suggest a third possibility. If the matchup is Obama-McCain--and that is of course far from decided--some evangelicals could switch over to the Democratic column.
True, McCain holds conservative positions on abortion, stem cell research and to an extent on gay marriage (he opposed a constitutional amendment banning gay marriage but supported a ban in his home state of
Friday, February 15, 2008
Kinky and Hillary
This has not stopped Hillary's campaign from moving into Kinky's old gubernatorial headquarters, near the intersection of two big highways in south Austin. (Obama's office has a funkier address, in downtown Austin across from one of Polprint's favorite coffee shops.) Bill Clinton will help open his wife's headquarters tomorrow.
But the office vibes may not bode well for Hillary. Kinky was initally riding high in the gubernatorial polls (near 20%, if Polprint's memory serves). Then he flamed out toward the end of the campaign, after an intriguing debate performance in which he flourished an unlit cigar and described the Internet as the "work of Satan". Presumably Hillary is too prim for such gambits.
On the subject of Texas idiosyncracies...Not to be missed is this photo of Obama in a rodeo hat.
The Straw Man
“When a wide-eyed young idealist
Confronts a seasoned realist
There’s bound to be some strain.
With the game barely started
I’d be feeling less downhearted
If I only had McCain."
But the original lyrics rather suit Obama too:
With the thoughts I’d be thinkin’
I could be another
If I only had a brain
Wednesday, February 13, 2008
Debating the debate
While we are on the subject of Texas, with its large undermobilised Latino voting contingent, a brief comment on the extraordinary letter sent recently (perhaps yesterday) by two Latino state lawmakers to the Clinton camp. The two lawmakers, both New Yorkers, are offended that Clinton's campaign manager, Patti Solis Doyle, resigned. Her parents were Mexican immigrants. The letter-writers assert:
Tuesday, February 12, 2008
Potomac Progress
But here's what's really impressive: turnout. Democrats' turnout today in Virginia--950,000--is more than double the 2004 turnout (390,000). Of course, more was at stake this time: in 2004 Kerry had already established a strong lead by the time Virginia rolled around. But the more interesting comparison is between parties. Democratic turnout today in Virginia is nearly double the Republican turnout (470,000). That bodes ill for the Republicans in a state that George Bush handily carried four years ago; and it is a pattern that seems to have repeated itself across the country.
What now? Wisconsin, the next big contest (sorry, Hawaii), is an open primary, so Obama should get a boost there from his fan base of independents. Polprint was gratified to learn from CNN that Obama will be making an economy speech on Wednesday at a GM factory in Wisconsin. Apparently he is taking her advice to give his speeches more substance and less "Yes we can". Then it will be on to Texas. Polprint plans to be in the Lone Star State from Thursday to Sunday to run the Austin marathon. Riveting dispatches will be forthcoming.
Primaries in 2012
The longer the Clinton-Obama race thunders on, the more difficult it will be in four years to send Texans, Hawaiians and the rest to the back of the line. Forty-eight states should rise in rebellion against Iowa and New Hampshire.
Stringing out the primary process, as has occurred this year, is fine. It allows the candidates to develop, and voters gradually to get acquainted with them. But there must be a mechanism for rotating states so that two of the smallest and whitest states in the country do not continue to monopolize decision-making about America's political future.
If history is any judge, most election years will not be nearly this exciting. The nominee of both parties will usually be known by now. Florida, Michigan, and every other state should get the chance to hold an early primary in due course.
Onward to the Potomac
Briefly, a few stories of note as we head into tonight's “Potomac Primary”:
*Clive Crook’s entertaining excoriation of
Reporters and Caucuses
Newspapers around the country have been grappling with the question of reporters’ right to vote. It does not seem to be an issue in primary states, where the ballot is secret. But the matter has cropped up in several caucus states.
American newspapers tend to separate opinion from reporting. (Polprint has been schooled in the British model, where if something is bollocks the reporter is free to say so.) On the political front, American reporters are supposed to present neutral information to their readers.
John Temple, the editor and publisher of Rocky Mountain News in
How is it that participating in a caucus means that reporters are not “open to differing views”? Or less open than if they did not participate?
A compromise system is in effect in
Monday, February 11, 2008
Gender and the DNC
Polprint will not add to the already plentiful “women’s vote” analysis of Hillary Clinton’s candidacy. But while we are on the subject of gender, she would like to share some “who knew?” facts about the Democratic Party charter.
The Republicans have fairly similar rules: a chairman and co-chairman of the opposite sex for the RNC; gender-diverse representatives on the RNC from states. There is more, but it does not quite go down to the level of ethnic co-ordinating committee (possibly there is none).
Now, Polprint can vaguely understand such documents appearing in the early 1970s, before she was born. And she feels grateful to all those who slugged it out for gender-equality in decades past. Nowadays, however, with a woman battling for the top of the Democratic ticket and Kay Bailey Hutchison’s name starting to be batted around by Republican VP speculators, aren’t we nearing that “post-gender” stage? What if
Sunday, February 10, 2008
Green Mountain Campaigning
Last week’s choicest political headline came from the Brattleboro (VT) Reformer: “State’s Vote May Matter After All”.
The smart money is on Obama, even though all of
There is another reason that both Democratic candidates will want to court Vermont. A Vermonter--Howard Dean, the former governor who is now the chairman of the Democratic National Committee—could ultimately decide their fate.
Thursday, February 7, 2008
McCain's green credentials
Environmentalists must be pleased with the Final Three (sorry, Huckabee). Obama and Clinton both support the now-standard Democratic climate approach of higher fuel-economy standards, cap & trade provisions for carbon dioxide, pumping money into renewables so as to generate green-collar jobs, etc.
But John McCain is not far behind them. A Republican in the mold of Arnold Schwarzenegger, McCain has promised to make stopping climate change a priority. He may be 71, but he is looking to the future. McCain has been pushing for cap & trade at least since 2003--longer than Obama has been in the Senate. Mitt Romney pandered to Michigan voters by arguing for lower fuel-economy standards, to help salvage the auto industry. Not so McCain.
President McCain might push for cap & trade legislation even more quickly than Clinton/Obama, since it would be one of the areas of obvious agreement between him and a Democratic-controlled Congress. (This analysis is not original to Polprint; its source is an unnameable Democrat.)
Even so, a piece today in Salon makes a good point that cap & trade is only part of the climate-change solution. There is also the matter of the judiciary--appointing judges who won't gut all environmental regulations. McCain also seems to oppose subsidies for solar and wind--and those two industries, especially solar, still do need help. See this interview in Grist for more.
Say It Ain't So, Mitt
Here’s the (multi)-million-dollar question--What should Mitt Romney do now? He’s got lots of experience: boss of a big consultancy; turnaround genius of the Winter Olympics; tamer of liberal
Please, everyone, jump in...
1) Return to Bain. Replenish financial trove...for another run in 2012.
5) Go hunting. For real. With Scalia.
6) Pass torch to Tagg.