Wednesday, March 5, 2008

The Morning After

Pity the superdelegates. For the last three weeks they have trickled over to the Obama bandwagon. Now, Clinton is the flavour of the moment. Some who have switched from Clinton to Obama may be secretly wishing that they had stayed the course.

What a mess. Polprint is sticking to her previous assertion that democracy is the big winner in a drawn-out contest. That every state’s vote matters is a good thing. But this seems like a point at which the campaign could get particularly nasty. A desire to end it all and shift the battle to McCain clashes with the genuine indecision of the voters. The problem of Florida and Michigan looms large; likewise that of the waffling superdelegates.

Speaking of Florida: it is worth noting that if Clinton carries Pennsylvania (polls there have shown her ahead in a tightening race), she will have won in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania. These are considered the “Big Three” swing states in the general election. The Democrats would be wise to pay them particular heed. (Polprint believes that Clinton would have still won Florida even if the candidates had campaigned there, albeit not by such a large margin.)

One more note: Clinton told CBS this morning that the dream ticket "may be where this is headed". Polprint has argued before that while Clinton-Obama is viable and even desirable for the Democrats, Obama-Clinton is not. If Obama gets the nomination, how about a third solution: boot out Harry Reid and give the Senate Majority Leader post to Clinton? A consolation prize to be sure, but she has studied hard at the knee of Robert Byrd. It might just suit her organizational, battle-ax skills.

Finally (promise), can the New York Times count? Today's NYT editorial rightly calls for the rest of the primary to take a more elevated tone. Then it states that "nearly a third of the 50 states have yet to hold nominating contests". Actually, that number is 10--which, according to Polprint's advanced mathematical calculations, equates to one-fifth. (See NYT calendar.) The Times was presumably including Puerto Rico and Guam, which also are yet to come (albeit this still doesn't get us to one-third).

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