About that sniper fire

Hillary Clinton has come under fire for transforming her 1996 visit to Tuzla, a base in Bosnia & Hercegovina, into a tale of running for cover under sniper fire.

Some perspective on this flap is in order. Polprint has just finished Means of Ascent, the second volume in Robert Caro's masterful biography of Lyndon Johnson. In the early 1940s LBJ had pledged to Texas voters that if war ever came, he would join their boys on the front lines. So after Pearl Harbor, Johnson hemmed and hawed and finally headed to the Pacific as a "Naval Observer". He tagged along on a single air-bombing raid, during which his plane came under fire from Japanese Zeroes. The flight landed safely. LBJ headed home, having fulfilled the letter if not the spirit of his political pledge, and was awarded a Silver Star by General McArthur.

Not long afterwards, Johnson's wartime service suddenly became magnified. He had not simply tagged along on one flight as an observer; rather, he had "lived with the men on fighting fronts. I flew with them on missions over enemy territory." Once, he claimed to have seen 14 Japanese Zeroes "go down in flames right in front of me." He flourished the silver star to prove his valor. And the press bought it. During the 1948 Senate race in Texas, which Johnson won through hook and crook, one paper cited Johnson's descriptions of how "he was flying in B-29s, helping bomb one Japanese island after another into submission". The Austin-American Statesman wrote of Johnson's "gallantry in combat action".

Johnson would never have survived a day in the Internet era (for this reason and many others). Nonetheless, against such magnifications, Hillary Clinton's exaggerations look tame.

Clinton and pledged delegates

Polprint is back, rested and refreshed after her visit to the land of Chavez, milk shortages and $1.50-a-tank gasoline (really).

Not much seems to have changed here—just Bill Richardson’s endorsement of Obama, and a growing consensus that Clinton cannot win. The starkest blow was struck today by Vermont Senator Pat Leahy, an Obama backer, who called on Clinton to bow out.

Fighting back, Clinton has made the intriguing comment to Time that “pledged delegates” (as well as super-delegates) can make up their own minds. In other words, pledged delegates do not have to cast their vote at the convention in accordance with the voters’ wishes. This may be correct from a legal standpoint, but it seems politically tenuous. If pledged delegates were to strike out on their own, it would directly disenfranchise the voters—which incidentally is what Clinton is trying to argue against doing in Michigan and Florida.

Breaking for Bloggers

Even Bloggers need vacations...and Polprint is headed to the playa in Venezuela. Please check back toward the end of March, for exciting coverage of the run-up to Pennsylvania.

Hanging Delegates

It's official: Florida's Democrats will not revote. This spares the world from the spectacle of Hanging Chads: The Sequel. But it does not improve the lot of Florida's Democrats, who must now decide what to do with their 211 Hanging Delegates. At the moment, talk is revolving around alloting Florida's delegation half its usual number of votes; or not seating them at all.

Will all this lead to a Who Lost Florida fight on November 5th? Possibly. Any move the Democrats make risks angering large swathes of Florida voters. But they may be lagging in the state already. John McCain appeals nicely to the elder constituency, and he could choose Florida's governor, Charlie Crist, as a running-mate. But Crist may first have to sort out Florida's economy, which has been hammered by the real-estate bust.

More fun with Spitzer

Polprint got a chuckle out of this cartoon by Nick Anderson of the Houston Chronicle (reprinted in today's NYT Week in Review).

Florigan, continued

Polprint is showing signs of becoming a real pundit--meaning that her analysis has proved to be wrong. Specifically: her assertions last week about Florida and Michigan--that they were nearing consensus on a revote--were highly premature.

Obama, according to the LA Times, does not want a revote, especially in Florida. (This position is sensible because Florida is full of old people and Cubans, who doubtless prefer Hillary; on the other hand there is no better way to alienate Florida voters.) Moreover, a mail-only ballot, done in a rush, will spur accusations of fraud. Michigan, for some reason, is closer to a revote agreement.

Spitzer and Clinton

Top three ways that Spitzer's resignation could affect the presidential race:

1) A new consolation prize for Clinton: governor of New York. As David Broder of the Washington Post notes, David Paterson can be challenged in 2010. (The next Illinois governorship race will also take place in 2010.) Polprint still thinks that the Senate Majority Leader slot would be better-suited to Clinton.

2) A reminder of Bill Clinton's less savory doings. Bill has been shoved into the background in recent months; the Spitzer scandal, with clutch assistance from Hillary's 3am phone call ad, has set the pundits chattering again. On the other hand, Silda Wall Spitzer's plight could animate the sympathy-for-Hillary voters.

3) The superdelegate tally in New York. Clinton has lost one of her staunchest supporters in Spitzer. But according to this CBS News blog, Paterson has endorsed her too. Paterson already held a superdelegate slot as lieutenant governor, so his vote could go to someone else. (Still, the New York delegation will surely stick together and back their Senator.)

Anything I'm missing?